If we ignore the results of the two north London clubs, which Blues can certainly have taken some joy from, it was a very bad weekend for Chelsea fans. Yes, Spurs are going down. Yes, the Gunners are doing their annual Spursy bottle job. But Chelsea lost, convincingly, while their biggest rival for a Champions League spot recorded a comfortable win.
The Blues have now slipped four points behind Liverpool. They have a superior goal difference, but even so, with just six games left to play, that looks like a lot to make up. Especially given that Liam Rosenior’s men have hit a very sticky patch of form at just the wrong time.
Chelsea have now lost their last three league games in a row, all without scoring, the last two both being by a score of 3-0. Leaving aside their FA Cup win over a Port Vale team that is set to be in the fourth tier next term, Rosenior has now overseen five defeats in a row. They have just one PL win from their last seven matches. Rather than looking up towards Liverpool and fifth place, the Blues should probably now be worried about holding on to sixth.
Is Fifth Place Out of Reach?
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— Chelsea FC (@ChelseaFC) April 12, 2026
It has long seemed highly likely that fifth spot in the PL would be enough to earn a spot in the UCL in 2026/27. That was confirmed recently, when Arsenal beat Sporting in the first leg of their quarter-final. As things stand, that fifth spot seems highly likely to be heading Liverpool’s way. There are various permutations depending on how the English clubs still in Europe this term get on, but the most likely of them means that Chelsea will need to finish fifth if they are to qualify for next term’s Champions League.
Chelsea’s Remaining Fixtures
- Man United (home)
- Brighton (away)
- Nottingham Forest (home)
- Liverpool (away)
- Spurs (home)
- Sunderland (away)
That is a tough run of games, starting with Man United at the Bridge. Chelsea are obviously capable of beating anyone on their day, but even leaving aside current form, it is hard to see them getting more than 13 points from those games. Even that might well be a push.
The clash with Liverpool is obviously key, but with that being at Anfield, it is a six-pointer that one has to feel won’t go Chelsea’s way. If they can get a draw on Merseyside, it would be a great result and give them a fighting chance, but lose that one and it is almost impossible to see them overhauling the Reds.
If we assume Rosenior’s side do win 13 points from the 18 still available to them, that would leave them on 61 points. Leaving aside the dreadful 2022/23 campaign, that would be their lowest tally since 2015/16. More pertinently, it would mean that Liverpool would need just 10 more points to be absolutely certain of finishing above Chelsea.
Liverpool Fixtures
The picture we have painted so far is a little negative, especially given Liverpool’s run-in. The Reds start with a trip to Everton, a fixture that has seen a very high number of draws in recent years. The Toffees are eighth, and in all, Liverpool have five of their final six matches against sides currently in the top eight.
- Everton (away)
- Crystal Palace (home)
- Man United (away)
- Chelsea (home)
- Aston Villa (away)
- Brentford (home)
If Liverpool find their feet, they could, of course, win all six of those matches. But that is a big ‘if’ for a side that has struggled so much with consistency this term. That said, tough though those fixtures are, one would expect Arne Slot’s men to be able to get three wins and a draw.
A Battle for Sixth?
If things play out broadly as we expect them to, Liverpool will clinch fifth, which will leave Chelsea in a battle for sixth. As things stand, that is likely to earn a spot in the Europa League group phase, and it is debatable whether that would be a blessing or not. The financial reward is minimal compared to the Champions League, while the extra games are sure to have an impact on the league campaign, even with the deep squad the Blues possess.
Last weekend, Chelsea got the result they would have wanted in the clash between Brentford and Everton. Ahead of the Blues’ clash with City on Sunday, the Bees and the Toffees met in London, coming into the clash in seventh and eighth, respectively. The hosts looked to have stung the Mersyeysiders but came unstuck due to a late equaliser.
Both sides dropping points was perfect for Rosenior’s men, who then had the chance to move four points clear of both. As we know, they didn’t take that chance, so now they are just a point clear of both Brentford and Everton. The battle for sixth is not limited to these three clubs, though, with Bournemouth in 11th just three points adrift of Chelsea.
Everton have three matches with clubs in the bottom eight, and if they can beat Liverpool, they could spring a surprise. One thing is almost certain: the battle for sixth place is going to the wire.