As 2025/26 Premier League action pauses for the first international break, Chelsea find themselves sitting in second place in the table. A positive start to the campaign, which has seen the Blues register seven points, has got some fans wondering if they might be in contention for first place this year. In this article, we will assess Chelsea’s title credentials and see whether their early momentum can be sustained across a demanding season.
A Mixed Summer Transfer Window
João Pedro is on fire at Chelsea. 🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/sKH7SbUoHl
— Football Tweet ⚽ (@Football__Tweet) August 30, 2025
League titles can be decided in the transfer market as clubs acquire players that push the team to a new level. There are certainly positive elements to take from Chelsea’s transfer window, but they look at least a couple of signatures short of being title contender material. Focussing on the positives to begin with, Joao Pedro has hit the ground running and appears to be an excellent bit of business. Fellow countryman Estevao also looked to be a huge talent thanks to his ability to run at defenders.
Elsewhere, Chelsea have signed other promising young talents such as 19-year-old Jorrel Hato and 21-year-old Jamie Gittens. The Blues basically stocked up on youngsters once again, with 23-year-old Pedro being the oldest summer recruit. This has resulted in Chelsea comfortably retaining their place as the youngest club in the English top flight. The trouble is, young squads tend not to win titles. Over the last nine PL seasons, the average age of the winning squad has been 26.5, considerably higher than the average age of the current Blues’ squad (23.3).
It would have done the club a lot of good to sign an experienced goalkeeper and central defender this window. Current first-choice keeper Robert Sanchez is far from convincing and may cost the Blues a few points over the course of the season. There is also a shortage of quality when it comes to central defenders. Axel Disasi and Benoit Badiashile cannot be trusted, Wesley Fofana is perpetually injured, and Levi Colwill is out for most of the season. This leaves only Tosin and Chalobah as dependable options for the Blues. Hato can comfortably cover there if required, but is more accustomed to playing left back.
On top of this, there is a risk that Chelsea will be light in reliable striking options if the recent injury to Liam Delap is as bad as feared. To help mitigate the damage, the club recalled Marc Guiu from his loan at Sunderland, but there has been little evidence that he is good enough to lead the line for a top Premier League club just yet. This leaves Pedro as Chelsea’s sole available quality option up front. Perhaps the decision to offload Nicolas Jackson on loan could come back to haunt the Blues, even if they ended up with a better deal from Bayern.
Performances So Far
Chelsea put on a show against West Ham! ⭐️ pic.twitter.com/0U7iyQdDwu
— Premier League (@premierleague) August 22, 2025
Chelsea’s opening matches have shown a degree of promise, but with room for improvement. An emphatic 5-1 win over West Ham demonstrated their attacking power and the potential of their new-look squad. Or maybe just how bad the Hammers are?
However, the Blues can consider themselves lucky to have beaten Fulham and earned a point at home to Crystal Palace. In both fixtures, the controversial use of VAR denied the opposition goals that would have put them ahead. Officiating has been on Chelsea’s side so far this season but they cannot expect this good luck to continue.
While there has undoubtedly been an element of good fortune, more optimistic supporters will point to the fact that Enzo Maresca’s men post strong underlying numbers. According to Understat’s model, they have the highest expected goals in the league and third-lowest expected goals against. The trouble is maintaining these figures during a long season when you lack depth in key areas.
Momentum from Last Season
If you look at Chelsea’s form dating back to the second half of last season, there is evidence to suggest they have a title challenge in them. Since late February, they have taken 33 points from a possible 45. Over a full campaign, that points-per-game rate would see them finish on 83/84 points. While this looks promising, this is a cherry-picked starting point and last season the Blues were only in the Conference League, a competition that enabled them to rest key players. Now back in the Champions League, midweek games will not allow for such rotation and injuries/fatigue may be more of an issue this campaign.
Palmer Pivotal?
It has been said in the past that Chelsea are reliant on Cole Palmer. Indeed, there were times during Mauricio Pochettino’s era when the Englishman was almost single-handedly responsible for earning the Blues points. Last season, Palmer began just as well before a huge post-Christmas slump which has now resulted in him going 17 league games without a goal from open play.
The fact that Chelsea have been able to get results without Palmer scoring is a positive sign, as it shows a greatly reduced dependency on him. However, for Chelsea to even get close to title contention, you have to think Palmer will need to be in good form throughout the season. Whether he can manage this remains to be seen.
The Competition
Any title bid will depend not just on Chelsea’s progress but also on the performance of their rivals. Manchester City look a little unconvincing after suffering two defeats already but there is every indication Liverpool and Arsenal will be firmly in title contention.
Both clubs have strengthened significantly during the summer and can be expected to be even better than last season. They had a combined net spend of £475m, both splashing out more than £200m. In contrast, Maresca oversaw a small profit on player trading. To outperform both these clubs over 38 matches is an extremely tough ask for such a young Chelsea side.
The Bookies’ View
At 8/1, Chelsea are outsiders for the title but not without any hope. The bookmakers have them as the fourth favourites, behind Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester City.
This is an improvement on the 20/1 price tag you could back them at the start of last season, but still only an implied probability of 11.1%. Backing the Blues is not a bet that particularly tempts us, although far stranger things have happened in football, as Leicester City will tell you.
Conclusion
There is plenty for Chelsea fans to be encouraged by in the early stages of the 2025/26 season. They are back in the Champions League, have signed a lot of talented young players and have made an unbeaten start to the season. That said, we cannot see the Blues being serious title challengers this season.
There are concerns over the depth and experience in the squad, which could become issues as the fixtures begin to pile up. It will also likely take a lot of points to win the title, given Liverpool and/or Arsenal could well have strong campaigns, and potentially even Manchester City. For a team that managed 69 points last season, asking them to get 85+ this year while making a transfer market profit is surely too much of a big ask.