Despite poaching many of Brighton’s best staff and players in recent years, Chelsea suffered back-to-back defeats to the Seagulls in the space of six days in February. The first loss saw the Londoners crash out of the FA Cup while the second saw them drop out of the top four of the Premier League and into sixth position.
How much of an impact will these morale-damaging defeats impact the rest of Chelsea’s season though? Will the Blues be able to pick themselves up, dust themselves down and kick on, or will their recent woes prompt a spiral of decline that could wreck an otherwise promising campaign? Let us assess what the rest of the season might hold for Enzo Maresca and his players.
Domestic Cup Drought Continues
Defeat.#CFC | #BHACHE pic.twitter.com/BG09GP1FeV
— Chelsea FC (@ChelseaFC) February 14, 2025
Nobody was expecting Chelsea to mount a serious title challenge this year but they were among the favourites for both the FA Cup and the League Cup. As they were sent crashing out of the latter in the fourth round by Newcastle United, this gave their FA Cup journey greater significance. After enjoying an easy third-round win over League Two side Morecambe, a much tougher test followed – an away trip to Brighton.
Chelsea were the slight favourites to progress but by all accounts, this was a tough fixture and so it proved to be. Despite making six changes from the side that beat West Ham in the league, the Blues still fielded a strong-looking team, evidence that Maresca was taking the contest seriously.
Things began well enough when the visitors took the lead just five minutes in. It is hard to give them too much credit for this though given that the goal came from a horrendous Bart Verbruggen error. Cole Palmer’s cross would have been easily dealt with 999 times out of 1,000 but this was the one the Dutchman got wrong.
Brighton quickly fired a goal back of their own, however, and grabbed the winning goal in the 57th minute. In Chelsea’s defence, there was an element of poor fortune in the loss. Brighton scored with their only two shots inside the opening hour and the second featured a handball in the build-up. At the same time, however, Chelsea never looked like scoring a second at any point. Christopher Nkunku featured in his side’s only semi-dangerous attack but he ended up overhitting his pass to Palmer. This limp exit from the FA Cup ensures that Chelsea will now go seven years without a domestic trophy.
Brighton Dent Top Four Hopes – But There Is Good News
After losing once again to Brighton, this time in the Premier League, Chelsea slipped down to sixth position in the table as Manchester City and Bournemouth won their respective fixtures. Adjusting their odds, most bookmakers put Chelsea at even money to finish in the top four, an implied probability of 50%.
Although finishing in the top four has been the standard requirement for Champions League qualification, it is looking almost certain that this will be extended to a top-five finish this season. If this proves to be the case, the Blues will only need to leapfrog Bournemouth who lead them narrowly on goal difference. This is positive news for the Blues and their chances of a top-five finish look significantly better than a top-four finish.
Premier League Table Top 10 (on 20th February 2025)
| Position | Club | Points | Goal Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | Liverpool | 61 | +36 |
| 2nd | Arsenal | 53 | +29 |
| 3rd | Nottingham Forest | 47 | +12 |
| 4th | Manchester City | 44 | +17 |
| 5th | Bournemouth | 43 | +15 |
| 6th | Chelsea | 43 | +13 |
| 7th | Newcastle | 41 | +9 |
| 8th | Fulham | 39 | +5 |
| 9th | Aston Villa | 39 | -3 |
| 10th | Brighton | 37 | 0 |
Despite the league loss to Brighton, Chelsea are currently well-positioned to finish in at least the top five. Their 3-0 loss to Brighton, however, suggested that sliding down the table is perhaps more likely than heading in the other direction. Good teams can have bad matches, but the concern for Chelsea is that issues that were apparent in the first Brighton loss reappeared during the league defeat.
Brighton Losses Highlight Chelsea’s Weaknesses
As we approach the business end of the season, Chelsea have two major problems. One is that they just can’t seem to keep clean sheets. By firing three goals past Maresca’s side, Brighton extended Chelsea’s run without a clean sheet in the league to eight matches. Since Boxing Day, in all competitions, the only clean sheet the Blues have managed was against Morecambe. There is no quick fix for this either as a significant part of the problem is Chelsea’s goalkeeping situation.
Roberto Sanchez has been demoted to the number two spot, following a series of mistakes, but the young Filip Jorgensen is hardly a huge upgrade. The Dane may be a little less error-prone but he is a long way from being one of the better goalkeepers in England’s top division. The issue with the increasingly rare clean sheets is that it means Chelsea need to score at least twice to win matches, and that is a challenge given the lack of fit strikers.
With Nicolas Jackson out injured, Chelsea do not have a natural centre forward to lead the line. Even though the Senegalese international had become very wasteful before his injury, he was still of benefit to the Blues’ attack. His link-up play and off-the-ball movement meant that he could help his teammates score, even if he was not doing so himself.
Christopher Nkunku is the only viable replacement for Jackson but even he is not a natural number nine. The Frenchman has a good record in the Europa Conference League but he has regularly looked underwhelming against Premier League opposition. Even the Brighton defence, one that recently conceded seven goals to Nottingham Forest, easily kept him very quiet. With Maresca desperately lacking in alternatives, he will be hoping Cole Palmer can contribute more but the Englishman has been seeing less of the ball in dangerous areas. Across his last four league games, the midfield maestro has amassed just 0.64xG on the Expected Goals measure.
Chelsea Should Sneak a Champions League Spot… But Only Just
Although Chelsea are very firmly in the fight to secure Champions League football next season, it is hard to see them ending the season particularly well. The back-to-back defeats to Brighton highlighted some issues, at both ends of the pitch, that Maresca will find hard to fix. Although the Blues should just about achieve a top-five finish and return to the Champions League, even this will likely require the teams around them dropping a considerable number of points so it’s not quite in the bag yet.