As we move toward the start of the 2025/26 Premier League season, it’s become abundantly clear that the bookmakers have picked out three teams as clear frontrunners in the betting markets: Liverpool, Man City, and Arsenal are all priced lower than 4/1, which in itself is a bit of a rarity to start a season. Liverpool are marginal favourites overall, but it is tight at the top.
Chelsea, however, occupy a position all on their own as 4th favourites, with odds ranging from about 8/1 to 10/1. The gap to the 5th favourites (Manchester United; who knows what you will get with them?) is considerable, with Ruben Amorim’s side priced around 33/1. After that, you have the likes of Newcastle and Spurs, with odds of 50/1 and above.
If we accept that it’s fair to see City, Liverpool, and Arsenal at the top of the pile, what would it take to get Chelsea a little closer to them, beyond some spectacular new signings ahead of the transfer window closing on September 1? A good start to the season would be welcome in that respect, and there is a chance that Chelsea can do that.
The Betting Markets Can Move with a Good Start
It doesn’t matter if you are betting on the Premier League or perusing the latest college football odds; the markets can shift when teams start winning, and Chelsea’s schedule is—for want of a better word—generous. It’s not always easy, as there is some truth in the cliché that there are no easy games in the Premier League, but Chelsea has a chance to take a commanding position in the league.
Coincidentally, the newly-minted world champions have no fewer than four London derbies – Crystal Palace, West Ham, Fulham, and Brentford – in their opening five games. They also have fixtures against Brighton and Manchester United to round out September. In October, there is a tie against Liverpool at home, followed by Nottingham Forest and Sunderland. The Liverpool fixture stands out, and we think that United will be much better this season, despite all the problems the club seems to be having, but there are at least seven of those nine games where Chelsea will be considered the favourites in the betting.
Chelsea Has an Opportunity to Get into the Mix Early
As such, the point is that Chelsea has an opportunity to put down a marker in the early season, which would surely move the betting markets. This feels important for Chelsea for three reasons: First, Maresca will need new signings like Gittens, Delap, and Pedro to gel. Secondly, the sojourn at the Club World Cup will have taken its toll on players – it’s disruptive for preseason preparations – so easing them in and using the full depth of the squad in ‘winnable’ fixtures will be beneficial across August and September.
Finally, confidence and a sense of momentum will be crucial for Chelsea’s hopes of challenging the title, and getting a good start could do wonders. We said many of those fixtures were ‘winnable,’ and that certainly doesn’t mean Chelsea will sail through them. But if Chelsea head into November with something like 21 or 22 points or more, you can be pretty sure that the bookies will have moved them closer to the top three in the betting odds. Of course, it doesn’t matter what the odds are, but it will indicate that the club is moving in the right direction in a bid for a first league title since the 2016-17 season.