Chelsea’s Tricky May to Make or Break Season

by
Chelsea's Marc Guehi
Cosmin Iftode | Bigstockphoto

As the 2024/25 season draws to a close, Chelsea boss Enzo Maresca finds himself heading to a decisive part of the campaign, and perhaps one that may decide his future at the club. At the start of a pivotal month, Maresca still has plenty to aim for. His side can still win the UEFA Conference League and qualify for next season’s Champions League with a top-five finish in the Premier League.

This is a long way from a guarantee though, and there is a possibility that it all goes wrong for the Blues in May. Should Maresca fail to win a European title and finish lower than fifth in the league, will this be enough to see him booted out of Stamford Bridge after just one season?

Champions League Football the Priority


There may be no trophy for finishing fifth place in the Premier League, unlike winning the Conference League, but securing a return to Europe’s premier club competition is the most important of Maresca’s aims. Not only does Champions League involvement make a club more attractive to prospective new players, but it is worth a lot of money.

Figures vary on several factors but if you take Arsenal this season, for example, they pocketed £38m by the time they reached the quarter-finals. If they end up winning the whole thing, they will end up with more than £83m. By contrast, Chelsea stand to earn just £15m if they win the Conference League (£7.7m already guaranteed).

There is also the simple fact that the Blues are desperate to return to the Champions League, having spent the last two years away from it. To go another year out in the cold, so to speak, would be a big blow for a team of their stature, especially as they used to have such regular involvement. Between 2003/04 and 2022/23, only twice did the Londoners not take part in the tournament, so to potentially miss out for a third consecutive year does not bode well for the club’s future.

Race to the Top Five

Here is how the race for the top five is shaping up with four games to go.

Position Club Matches Played Points Goal Difference Top 5 Odds
3rd Newcastle 34 62 +21 2/9
4th Man City 34 61 +23 1/8
5th Chelsea 34 60 +19 8/13
6th Nottingham Forest 33 60 +14 4/11
7th Aston Villa 34 57 +5 4/1

With Fulham and Brighton surely too far adrift, this leaves five clubs fighting over the last three positions. Aston Villa find themselves as outsiders given they are already three points off the pace and have a vastly inferior goal difference. Forest, however, are a major threat to the Blues.

Currently, Chelsea’s fate remains within their own hands, but they have a tough run-in which sees them play two of their top-five rivals: Liverpool (H), Newcastle United (A), Manchester United (H), Nottingham Forest (A). The matches against Newcastle and Forest are real six-pointers and will be key to determining how this season ends. It is a shame for the Blues that both matches are away from home, as they have collected 25 points on the road compared with 35 at Stamford Bridge this year.

Beating champions Liverpool is not going to be an easy feat either, even if the Reds have less to play for now. The Merseysiders have a troublingly good record against the Blues, which has seen them go 10 matches unbeaten against Chelsea across all competitions.

How Bad Is Missing Out on Top Five?

Clearly there is a real chance that Chelsea fail to secure a top-five finish, but how much of a disaster would this prove to be? Enzo Maresca has claimed that the club never told him securing Champions League football was the target for this season, but such claims will do little to adjust fan perception of the season. Ultimately, he was brought in to improve on Mauricio Pochettino, who finished in sixth place with 63 points.

To help with this, Chelsea brought in new players at a cost of around €235m, while losing just one regular senior player (Conor Gallagher). Maresca could finish with nine more points than Pochettino managed, but he could also finish with three fewer. These final four games will largely determine if there has been an improvement, and it is important for Maresca to show he is taking the club in the right direction.

Conference League

Winning the Conference League is a secondary priority for Chelsea, and even though it is not the most prestigious of competitions, fans will enjoy having a piece of silverware to celebrate. The good news for Maresca is that his men are extremely likely to make it to the final. Chelsea’s semi-final opponents, Djurgarden, started the season as 200/1 outsiders to win this competition and have only made it past the qualification stage of a European competition one other time since 2005.

Priced as short as 1/33 to progress, Chelsea surely will make it to the last hurdle, where they will face either Real Betis or Fiorentina. Both these sides are good enough to give Chelsea a genuine challenge so lifting another European title is no certainty, but the Blues will have the strongest side on paper.

How Bad Is Not Winning the Conference League?

Losing in the semi-finals to Swedish outfit Djurgarden would be an embarrassment and one of the great European upsets of all time. Losing to Real Betis or Fiorentina in the final would not come with this embarrassment factor but it would still big a considerable disappointment as the Blues have been the strong favourites the entire tournament.

Potential Outcomes for Chelsea

To sum up the potential outcomes for Chelsea this season, take a look at the table below.

Outcome Rating Maresca Future
Top 5 finish & Conference League Trophy Great Safe
Top 5 finish & No Conference Trophy Good Fairly Safe
No Top 5 Finish & Conference League Trophy Okay Uncertain
No Top 5 Finish & No Conference League Trophy Poor In Danger

For the final row, it would still be considered a poor season if Chelsea finish high enough to secure a Europa League spot. Also, there is a significant difference between losing in the semi-final of the Conference League and the final as the former would be an inexcusable embarrassment. As for which of these outcomes seems most likely, we would have to go with the ‘no top 5 finish & Conference League trophy’.