With the latest international break out of the way and the brief Lee Carsley England era reaching a successful conclusion, this weekend sees the focus return to the Premier League. First up at 12:30 pm on Saturday, 23rd November, is one of the more eye-catching Match Day 12 clashes, as Leicester City welcome Chelsea to the King Power Stadium.
A showdown between a newly promoted side and one of the big hitters invariably boasts a little David vs Goliath appeal. However, the big talking point in this particular clash centres around the man in the Chelsea dugout. Having masterminded Leicester’s return to the top flight last season, Enzo Maresca jumped ship to become the latest brave soul to take on the role of Chelsea manager.
Despite that successful Championship season, sections of the Leicester faithful weren’t too sad to see the back of the 44-year-old Italian, with many bemoaning the lack of entertainment value in his methodical approach to the game. How will the home crowd feel now that their team are faced with breaking down the Maresca way?
Visitors Hot Favourites to Pick Up the Points
Predictably, these two sides have made starkly contrasting starts to the campaign. Chelsea sit pretty in third, whilst Leicester are down in 15th – a marked difference in positions, but both clubs may be satisfied if the season ended today. A return to the Champions League would represent a success for Maresca in his first year at Stamford Bridge, whilst simply avoiding relegation is an excellent result for any newly promoted club.
As to the game itself, Chelsea are hot favourites to hand Maresca a happy return to his former stamping ground. Looking at the record of the Blues on their travels so far this season, Steve Cooper’s men look up against it.
Chelsea have been reliable in dispatching the “lesser” outfits on the road. Much the better side in 6-2 and 3-0 wins over Wolves and West Ham, their narrow 1-0 victory at Bournemouth is commendable, with the Cherries mastering Arsenal and Manchester City in their two most recent home fixtures. Chelsea arrive in Leicester without a win in two on the road but played well in a 2-1 loss at Liverpool and a 1-1 draw at Old Trafford. This looks like an ideal fixture to get back in the winning groove and build momentum heading into the crucial Christmas period.
In contrast, Leicester’s 1-0 success over Bournemouth is their only win in five Premier League home fixtures. Failing to score more than once in any of those games and being exposed at the back in a 3-1 defeat to Nottingham Forest, they face a tall order in keeping the impressive Chelsea forward line quiet. That said, perhaps familiarity with the Maresca way of playing will work in their favour, and the potential absence of Cole Palmer through injury would be a significant blow for the visitors. The bookmakers make Chelsea a general price of 1/2 to come away with the points, and it’s hard to argue with that assessment.
Maresca the Man to Finally Deliver
If at first you don’t succeed, spend and spend again. That seems to be the mantra of the relentless Todd Boehly, who has churned through world-class managers whilst assembling one of the most bloated squads in Premier League history. It’s maybe not the most nuanced approach to success, but this method of bludgeoning your way to the top may be on the brink of paying dividends. And in fairness, it’s hard to argue with the logic of buying as many talented individuals as possible (39 signings in two years) in the hope that a top-class side emerges.
Perhaps in Maresca, Chelsea now have the man to create order amongst the chaos. However, that is possibly a little unfair to some of his predecessors. Thomas Tuchel registered a 60% win rate during his time at the club, and Mauricio Pochettino had Chelsea flying at the end of last season. If either man had stuck around, it isn’t much of a stretch to suggest that Chelsea would be in a similar position to that which they’re enjoying now.
Returning to the here and now, Chelsea are where the owners and fans expect them to be, i.e. poised to return to Europe’s top table. However, with only four points separating Chelsea in third and Manchester United in 15th, it is a little early for the Stamford Bridge faithful to count their chickens. A couple of successive defeats, and the resulting slump to mid-table, could see the complexion change dramatically in no time at all.
Can Chelsea Maintain Their Position?
Chelsea have caught the eye with their blistering counterattacking play, ability to hang on to the ball when required, and slightly improved defensive resolution. However, after only 11 Premier League games, they remain a work in progress.
As the side becomes fully attuned to what Maresca requires, it seems reasonable to assume further improvement may be forthcoming. However, if Chelsea merely maintain current performance levels, where can fans expect to finish? Closing a nine-point gap on Liverpool looks like a tall order (although larger deficits have evaporated in the past), but should the denizens of the Matthew Harding Stand start making plans for glamourous European excursions in 2025/26?
What Do the Numbers Suggest?
To try and answer this question, we will turn to the in-vogue metric of Expected Goals (xG) and the related xG Points. Sitting eighth in the xG-for table and ninth in terms of xG-against, the initial takeaway suggests that Chelsea are a little fortunate to be flying so high. That opinion is reinforced by the xG-Points standings, which has Chelsea down in 11th, with an average tally of 1.5 xG-Points per game.
Extrapolating that 1.5 figure across the remaining games this season would see Chelsea finish on 59.5 points. If we take a positive view and round up, 60 points would have produced finishing positions of 7th, 8th, 6th, 9th, and 6th over the last five seasons.
Of course, xG isn’t everything, and the measure may overlook a crucial aspect of Chelsea’s game. If we use Chelsea’s actual points per game average from the current season of 1.73, a slightly rosier picture emerges. Applying this figure to a 38-game season produces a final total of 66 points, which would have been good for 5th, 6th, 6th, 5th, and 3rd-placed finishes over the past five seasons.
Purely on the numbers, expecting Chelsea to challenge for the title may be unrealistic this year, with the club’s trajectory more in line with the 63 points they accumulated on their way to sixth place last year. Recent history suggests that would not be enough to satisfy Todd Boehly, placing firm pressure on Maresca to improve the club’s underlying performance levels or ensure that Chelsea stays ahead of the xG curve – as they have over the opening 11 games of the campaign.