Chelsea played Cypriot minnows Pafos FC in the Champions League on Wednesday night at Stamford Bridge, and it wasn’t the walkover many had expected. It was new Blues boss Liam Rosenior’s first Champions League outing, and he cannot have been overly pleased with his side. Chelsea dominated the play against the team from Cyprus, but they didn’t create enough clear-cut chances, and it took 77 minutes before they got their noses in front. Moisés Caicedo was the man of the moment for the home side after he nodded in from a corner.
That goal proved decisive as the match ended 1-0 to Chelsea. In truth, it could and should have been a more convincing scoreline, but the visitors defended stoutly and their goalkeeper, former Ajax man Jay Gorter, made a string of fine saves. But with just one game left in the league phase of the Champions League, where does this result leave Chelsea? And what must Rosenior’s side do in their next Champions League match to ensure they finish in the top eight (and thus progress straight to the Round of 16 without having to deal with the play-offs)?
Champions League – League Phase Standings
After seven games of the league phase, it’s another London side sitting pretty at the top of the table as Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal continued their 100% record in this season’s competition. Bayern Munich are also assured of a top-eight finish, while the other six places are up for grabs. Currently, Liverpool, Spurs and Newcastle are all ahead of Chelsea, along with Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain, so it all comes down to the final round of league phase fixtures on Wednesday, 28th January.
| Position | Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goals For | Goals Against | Goal Difference | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 2 | 18 | 21 |
| 2 | Bayern Munich | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 7 | 13 | 18 |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 15 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 15 |
| 5 | Tottenham Hotspur | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 14 |
| 6 | Paris Saint-Germain | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 13 |
| 7 | Newcastle United | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 13 |
| 8 | Chelsea | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 13 |
| 9 | Barcelona | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 13 |
| 10 | Sporting CP | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 13 |
| 11 | Manchester City | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 13 |
| 12 | Atletico Madrid | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 13 |
| 13 | Atalanta | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 13 |
| 14 | Inter Milan | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 12 |
| 15 | Juventus | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 12 |
| 16 | Borussia Dortmund | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 15 | 4 | 11 |
| 17 | Galatasaray | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 10 |
| 18 | Qarabağ | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 10 |
There are plenty of sides breathing down Chelsea’s neck, with Barcelona, Sporting, Manchester City, Atletico Madrid, and Atalanta all on the same number of points, the Blues sneaking ahead on goal difference. Five other sides could technically get ahead of Chelsea if results go their way.
Napoli v Chelsea – Tough Final Fixtures for the Blues
Chelsea would no doubt have preferred a slightly less challenging final game in the league phase as they attempt to maintain their position in the top eight. Napoli away is not going to be easy, and the Blues will be envious of some of the other English clubs’ final games (for instance, Arsenal versus Kairat, and Liverpool versus Qarabağ). On the other hand, it could have been worse: Newcastle travel to Paris Saint-Germain and will almost certainly need at least a point to stick around in the top eight.
In Chelsea’s favour is the fact that Napoli haven’t performed particularly well in the Champions League this term. As things stand, they are in 25th place and in real danger of not even making the play-offs. Antonio Conte’s men managed only a draw against Copenhagen on Tuesday, lost 2-0 at Benfica in December, and limped to a 0-0 draw against Frankfurt on home soil in November. They also lost at Man City (2-0) and got hammered at PSV (6-2). Their two wins in the competition have come against Sporting (2-1) and Qarabağ (2-0), both at home.
Can Chelsea get a positive result in Naples? Realistically, with so many fine teams lined up before them in the standings, the Blues need a win to be fairly sure of a top-eight finish. Based on the performance against Pafos and the lack of time Rosenior will have had to work with his new team, we think the best Chelsea can hope for is a draw. And we don’t think that will be enough, so the Blues will likely have to face the knockout phase play-offs if they want to progress to the Round of 16.