Liam Rosenior’s Chelsea have not had things easy of late. Aside from their expected, emphatic victory over Port Vale in the FA Cup, there hasn’t been too much for the Blues faithful to sing about. Chelsea’s 8-2 humiliation in the Champions League last 16 against Paris Saint-Germain was a stark contrast to the their FIFA Club World Cup triumph over the Paris side last July. Throw in Premier League defeats to Arsenal, Everton and Newcastle, and the mood at the club has been dour of late.
Okay, Rosenior’s men did manage a decent 4-1 away win at Aston Villa in early March, which is essentially a six-pointer when it comes to Champions League qualification. But if the Blues want to join Europe’s top table again next term, the next two games could prove crucial. And those games, while both at home, are not going to be straightforward as they are against Manchester City (on 12th April) and Manchester United (on 18th April).
Manchester Clubs’ Resurgence Bad Timing for Blues
Pep Guardiola’s Man City are flying high after winning the League Cup against Arsenal, and their recent 4-0 drubbing of Liverpool in the FA Cup. Given they are still in with a chance of landing the Premier League title, the Cityzens will surely be going all out for victory at Stamford Bridge.
Indeed, the bookies see the visitors prevailing, with City priced at 11/10 to take the three points, according to odds from this crypto sportsbook guide. The Blues would arguably see a draw as a decent result after recent disappointments, but there could be hope of an upset. In March, City lost home and away to Real Madrid and could only draw against West Ham and Nottingham Forest. Still, the recent positive results suggest City will be in the mood to perform well on Sunday.
Turning to United, who visit Stamford Bridge the following Saturday, Michael Carrick has made a significant positive difference since he’s taken charge. United are currently in third place in the table, and they could be sizing up second place, should their neighbours slip up. The Red Devils only managed a draw at Bournemouth in their last league match on 20th March, and they’ve not played since, so they might have lost a little momentum. Rosenior would dearly love to get the three points in this one, but again this will be no walk in the park.
Overall, the Chelsea boss would no doubt be happy with four points from the two games against the Manchester teams. Given recent performances, however, that could be wishful thinking. Given there’s a danger of them slipping down the table further than their current position of sixth, getting at least one win from the next two games appears crucial.
Would a Top 4 Finish Be Considered a Success?
At the time of writing, Chelsea are priced at odds of 9/2 to finish the season in the top four of the Premier League. Perhaps more pertinently, now that the Premier League has secured at least five Champions League qualifying spots, the Blues are 5/4 to finish in the top five. But would finishing fourth or fifth be considered a successful league campaign, given how much cash the club has invested in recent times? Probably not, but fourth place might be as good as it gets for the Blues, unless there is a complete capitulation from Manchester United and Aston Villa in the run-in.
Of course, while finishing fourth or fifth is hardly much for fans to get excited about, failure to finish in the top five (and hence failure to qualify for next term’s Champions League) would spell complete disaster for the club. This would be primarily from a financial perspective, given the money-spinning nature of Europe’s elite club competition. But also when it comes to status and the ability to attract top players (assuming they have any money left to buy anyone!).
The FA Cup Could Offer Relief
If Chelsea fail to qualify for the Champions League, it will almost certainly spell the end of Rosenior’s time at the club. But even if that happens, he could still go out on a high by winning the FA Cup. The draw against Leeds United in the semi-finals means they will need to battle if they want to make it to the final, but they will start as clear favourites against a side battling relegation.
If they overcome the West Yorkshire outfit, the Blues would then almost certainly face Man City (who play Southampton in their semi). City are the strong odds-on favourites to lift the cup, but Chelsea are second-favourites (at 5/2), and the Blues have a decent enough record in finals (as they showed against PSG in July!).
Overall, the club hierarchy might well prefer that Chelsea finish fifth, and hence earn a place in the Champions League, rather than win the FA Cup. The worst-case scenario, of course, is that the Blues finish sixth (or lower!) and lose in the semis to Leeds. On the flip side, an FA Cup triumph and a third-place finish are not beyond the realms of possibility… but the next two games against Manchester opponents will set the tone for the rest of the season.